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Analysis of The MP Council Race (Complete With Predictions!)

Original post made by Tim Russert, Menlo Park: Sharon Heights, on Nov 5, 2006

Now that practically everything has been said and it’s now “up to the voters,” here’s one man’s analysis of the MP city council race:

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Comments (5)

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Posted by communitymom
a resident of Menlo Park: The Willows
on Nov 5, 2006 at 10:42 pm

Your analysis is pretty good, though I believe turnout will be strong given all the propositions on the ballot -- somethingin there to motivate MANY types (pro-choicers to oppose 85, people concerned with envrironment and planning to opposed 90, Clean Tech advicates and big oil foes to support 87, etc)....

One balance these support the challengers more than the incumbent slate.

ALso feedback from all parts of Menlo Park even amoung many Republicans is not sounding good for the Slate, though some people will ticket cplit and Boyle is likely to be the beneficiary of that as he has no voting record (other than his continued support for priviatization on the Child Care Task Force as the lone vote on that 9 member body at this point, which clearly shows why he's running with Winkler and Duboc)

Threfore I think you are wrong that Boyle will get the 2d most votes. Cline will probably take that honor, but it could be close. Bressler could even edge out Boyle. That third slot will be a tight race. Turnout will be key there. I don't think the Measure J effort is going to help the incumbent slate much as people are figuring out it's $17 M price tag and environmental and maintenance nightmares.

I give the edge to Bressler. He has impressed me on the campaign trail as probably the most level headed and independent of the whole lot. I sincerely hope he gets in!

Only 2 more days and we shall see!


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Posted by Voter
a resident of Menlo Park: Central Menlo Park
on Nov 6, 2006 at 12:43 am

Most likely outcome in the coming election is a sweep by Bressler/Cline/Robinson.

Bressler has some unique positives that may win votes that Cline/Robinson don't pick up.

1) Only independent in the race - not Democrat/Republican
2) Only east of El Camino candidate (Linfield Oaks) other than Mickie
3) Endorsed by the Palo Alto Daily as the alternative to Mickie, for those slate voters who just can't pull the Mickie lever.
4) Only non-slate candidate not endorsed by the union


It's hard to imagine the pro union vote going to Boyle.
Bressler/Cline/Robinson are all endorsed by the Sierra Club, all apposed to Measure J - so it's hard to see the enviromental or democratic vote going to any of the slate members.

Going to be interesting on Tuesday.









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Posted by JustGuessing
a resident of Menlo Park: Felton Gables
on Nov 6, 2006 at 7:12 am

If you look closely at the first hit piece the union sent out, you'll see Mickie waving "bye bye" in that swirl of flushing water.

Lee's pretty innocuous, but she's also pretty vacuous, and her main contribution at council meetings has been a well-timed giggle. My best guess? She's going down with Mickie.

The other four races are harder to call, but to me, it comes down to this: which values resonate with voters? Does MP prefer the country club noblesse oblige of big bucks Boyle (who did choose to align himself with Mickie and Lee), or the integrity and enthusiasm of the three challengers? You can probably tell where my votes are going.

As for J and K: both going down. Both are flaky. And both are backed by the incumbent slate, just two more reasons we'll be bidding bye bye baby to our L and M.


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Posted by Tim Russert
a resident of Menlo Park: Sharon Heights
on Nov 6, 2006 at 9:57 am

CommunityMom, You do make a good point about state proposition voters likely being anti-Winkler/Duboc/Boyle (the only exception being if you really support 90, the libertarian anti-eminent domain one, you’ll probably vote for Winkler at the very least).

As far as Bressler goes, I would tend to agree that he might actually be the best of the 6 for city council but, as we all know, the best almost never get elected (see G.W. Bush - or for that matter, John Kerry being supposedly "the best" the Democrats could offer). My view is based on trying to look at things in reality, not from an "I'd like to see" perspective. Bressler attracted the least in donations and endorsements and, let’s face it, while good one-on-one, he’s not a dynamic group speaker.

Having said that, I wouldn't be surprised, however, if Boyle does come in fourth, in which case it would plainly have been his formal association with Winkler and Duboc having killed his chances (remember, after all, he is the ONLY person endorsed by both the Almanac and the Daily News).

Finally, I think the main point I was getting at is that W-D-B were "behind the 8-ball" right from the start because this election was going to just draw interest from "local voters" (those voters interested in the local issues) and not draw many (to use a real estate term) "Looky-Lous" (those interested in higher level races – or state propositions - who feel obligated to vote locally as well, but aren't as well informed in so doing).

As such, the $100K that W-D-B may have ended up spending promoting themselves through mailers and newspaper ads went mostly to waste, as they were really aimed at those "casual voters" who simply won't be there at the polls this time. The only “casual voters” W-D-B will attract are the “Measure J” voters, but I just don’t see the overwhelming support for Measure J that W-D-B are hoping for will actually be there on Tuesday.



Like this comment
Posted by Prognosticator
a resident of Menlo Park: Central Menlo Park
on Nov 6, 2006 at 9:33 pm

Mickie and Lee are deservedly out out to pasture.

It's a toss-up between Bressler / Boyle
or Cline / Boyle for third seat.

Measure K, the utlity tax, goes down in defeat. I haven't heard anyone on favor of it. Even though there was no organized opposition, many just don't think it has any credibility given the fluctuating numbers from the city, but they'll consider it after Mickie & Lee are out.



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