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Lawn sign: Romney/someone 2012
Original post made
by Emerle, Woodside: Emerald Hills,
on Dec 19, 2011
Now that Newt Gingrich has fallen off a cliff in Iowa, only days prior to their voting, it clears the way for Mitt Romney to storm through the primaries and run as the Republican nominee in the general election.
Who's name will appear with Mitt's on our lawn signs?
The shift to the middle is inevitable - Mitch Daniels or Jon Huntsman as running mate.
I like Romney and Daniels.
Posted by Romney Fan
a resident of Menlo Park: Sharon Heights
on Apr 17, 2012 at 1:19 pm
Govenor Romney should prevail in the upcoming presdential election.
First Governor Romney has to win the states that McCain won in 2008. If Obama could not win these states in a year where he had every advantage, the chances of him winning them now as his popularity has sunk precipitously are rather slim. McCain carried 22 states overall, and this offers a solid foundation for Governor Romney.
Additionally, the McCain states actually gained six electoral votes from the last election cycle due to census changes, while solid Obama states lost the same amount.
The states in the "should win" category are: Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, and Wyoming. The only state in the list that the Obama campaign will probably wage a serious effort is Missouri, a state McCain won by less than 1%. Winning these conservative leaning states will give Governor Romney 180 of the required 270 electoral votes.
With only 90 electoral votes to go, the next goal is to win states that typically vote Republican, but went with Obama in 2008. Indiana (11 electoral votes) and North Carolina (15 electoral votes) should be the low hanging fruit for Governor Romney. Obama won both by less than 1% and are states George W. Bush carried by wide margins. Virginia (13 electoral votes), which was carried by Bush with 54% and has had a recent GOP resurgence, is a probable win for Governor Romney.
The next two states are winnable with a good ground campaigh. Florida (29 electoral votes) is probably the singularly most important state for Governor Romney. Obama carried the state by less than 3% in 2008, one of his weaker showings. Bush won Florida twice, including by 5% in 2004. Since Obama's election, the GOP has swept nearly every political race in Florida. The GOP has greater than two-thirds majorities in both legislative chambers. Marco Rubio, a potential vice-presidential pick, easily won his Senate race while Rick Scott won the governorship. Republicans also hold 19 of 25 congressional seats. Florida should go in the win column for Governor Romney".
After Florida, Ohio (18) is probably the second most important state. Ohio went for Bush in both 2000 and 2004 before tilting Obama's way in 2008. All three races were decided by fewer than 5%. In 2010, Ohio saw a a Republican resurgence as John Kasich upset an incumbent Democrat in the gubernatorial election and Rob Portman scored a huge victory in the US Senate race.
The race essentially comes down to needing a single victory in any number of states. At this point, the Republican nominee could have 266 of the needed 270 delegates for victory. Of course, should Governor Romney lose one or more of the above states, they could easily be substituted with the states listed below.
Colorado (9), Iowa (6), Michigan (16), Nevada (6), New Hampshire (4), New Mexico (5) Pennsylvania (20), and Wisconsin (10) all provide ample opportunity for victories. With the exception of Colorado, all of these states saw big victories for tea party and conservative candidates during the 2010 GOP comeback. These are also states where Bush had either won or was very competitive in both 2000 and 2004.
The Obama advantages of 2008 hav evaporated. His signature achievement Obamacare is widely unpopular and will most likely be struck down by the SCOTUS. The unemployment rate is still higher than when he took office and the number of people in the workforce is dropping dramatically. Gas prices have doubled. Unable to talk about his accomplishments, Obama's plan for victory is to launch class, gender, and racial attacks against Governor Romney. If the electoral trends of the last three years continue to hold then Governor Romney Should be taking his oath of office on January 20, 2013
Posted by ECR
a resident of Menlo Park: Downtown
on Apr 17, 2012 at 2:37 pm
"If the electoral trends of the last three years continue to hold then Governor Romney Should be taking his oath of office on January 20, 2013" Funny, Romney already thinks he's going to do it twice, look at his fundraising email for "Founding Members of 'Romney Victory'" - "have preferred status at the first Presidential Inaugural retreat". No arrogance there, eh?
Pretty big "if", depending on 2010 levels of republican support and democratic party apathy in a presidential. Look at the popularity of the GOP governors in the states you talk about - Kasich on OH, Scott in FL, etc... those guys couldn't win a dog catcher seat with their current numbers.
Pennsylvania is not a swing state. If Obama loses that (and the aggregate polls don't show that) then it's a landslide, but lets get back to reality.
Obama won by carrying the blue base states (2004 states) plus the ten swing states - the base states are California 55 ev's, Connecticut 7, Delaware 3, District of Columbia 3, Hawaii 4, Illinois 20, Maine 4, Maryland 10, Massachusetts 11, Michigan 16, Minnesota 10, New Jersey 14, New York 29, Oregon 7, Pennsylvania 20, Rhode Island 4, Vermont 3, Washington 12, Wisconsin 10
That's already 242 ev's. Romney doesn't pick up any of those as things currently stand, assuming things don't fall apart.
Leaves the 10 swing states: Colorado 9 ev's, Florida 29, Indiana 11, Iowa 6, Nevada 6, New Hampshire 4, New Mexico 5, North Carolina 15, Ohio 18, Virginia 13. Obama needs just 29 of that swing total 116 to add to his base 242.
Romney HAS to win the big three swing states Florida, Ohio and N Carolina or it's effectively game over.
Just the blue base states plus Florida and Romney's done: 242 + 29 = 271
Florida - Rubio just said AGAIN that he isn't going onto a potentially losing ticket and ruin his rep going into 2016; Romney will not campaign with Rick Scott because he's toxic. Florida will see fifty million in ads from both sides. Obama is up roughly 6 in the aggregate polls (includes Rasmussen) as of last week. Be a good time to be selling TV ad time on Florida stations this summer!
Besides Florida, the GOP has to play defense in any number of combos: Ohio/Virginia (Obama leads both right now); a Western strategy NM CO NV & IN, a plains plan CO IN IO etc...
Romney can do it, it's just really bad math unless he breaks the lock on the blue base states and the 242 votes they represent.
IMO, Romney can't do it with his unfavorables, which will not get better once the advertising starts. "Mitt Romney has emerged from the Republican primary season with the weakest favorability rating on record for a presumptive presidential nominee in ABC News/Washington Post polls since 1984, trailing a resurgent Barack Obama in personal popularity by 21 percentage points." ABC has him at 35%, Gallup at 42%.
Bad favorables, even worse than McCain. There was a reason McCain lost 365 - 173.
Posted by Romney Fan
a resident of Menlo Park: Sharon Heights
on Apr 30, 2012 at 2:26 pm
These are the facts. Bush had a gain of 1,080,000 jobs and Obama has a loss of 3,087,000 jobs. Libs love to flat out lie about the facts.
President Took office Jobs at start Jobs at end Change Pct. change
Truman 4/12/1945 41,443,000 50,145,000 8,702,000 21%
Eisenhower 1/20/1953 50,145,000 53,683,000 3,538,000 7%
Kennedy 1/20/1961 53,683,000 57,255,000 3,572,000 7%
Johnson 11/22/1963 57,255,000 69,438,000 12,183,000 21%
Nixon 1/20/1969 69,438,000 78,619,000 9,181,000 13%
Ford 8/9/1974 78,619,000 80,692,000 2,073,000 3%
Carter 1/20/1977 80,692,000 91,031,000 10,339,000 13%
Reagan 1/20/1981 91,031,000 107,133,000 16,102,000 18%
Bush 1/20/1989 107,133,000 109,725,000 2,592,000 2%
Clinton 1/20/1993 109,725,000 132,469,000 22,744,000 21%
Bush 1/20/2001 132,469,000 133,549,000 1,080,000 1%
Obama* 1/20/2009 133,549,000 *130,462,000 -3,087,000 -2%
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