Palo Alto decades ago made decisions regarding retail in the city and now they have to live with the consequences. No chain stores - so chain stores built right outside the city limits
Small grocery stores- JJ&F had to be protected at all costs ( to hell with the free market) and again groceries built large stores at the border
A limit on service stores- thee are too many gyms and nail salons, better the space remain empty until a mom and pop can take over
And don't forget the irrational lockdowns that drove many businesses to close and made people turn to online shopping. ( oh and the lockdowns didn't work. Web Link

Midtown Safeway has the same problem as the Downtown Whole Foods. The Safeway on San Antonio right on the other side of the border in Mt. View is just vastly better.

For a long time it struck me as weird that so many people are fixated on retail in this city. But I think I finally put my finger on something. Perhaps they do not have unrealistic expectations, as I long believed; but rather that I live next to Mountain View, and so my needs are served.

How will adding more residents downtown or near California Ave. help local retail? The new residents (likely to be well-to-do and tech savvy) are just as
as likely to shop online, work from home, and go to other cities (Mountain View) to shop at chain stores as current Palo Alto residents.

Part of the problem pertaining to the decline in Palo Alto retail stores is because shopping in Palo Alto is little more than a mundane experience, no different than shopping online.

And while more people do their shopping online nowadays due to convenience and pricing, many of the defunct PA retail stores were selling the same type of mundane merchandise that Bezos/Amazon now has the corner on.

Where are the specialty stores that once made shopping in Palo Alto unique and esoteric?

If shopping at the Apple Store, Williams of Sonoma, Macy's, Nordstrom, and some of the obscure boutiques at Stanford Shopping Center is the best Palo Alto can offer, why bother unless one is just another unenlightened materialist more preoccupied with designer labels and Veblen brands?

On the other hand, adding more esoteric shopping in Palo Alto might prove pointless because unlike the BabyBoomer generation, most Millennial and Gen Z shoppers have no esoteric tastes other than an ongoing preoccupation with mass-produced electronic devices and the wisdom of social media influencers.

Outside of maintaining a strong customer base for PA dining venues and nail/hair care salons, the other options are quite limited and probably not worth pursuing.

While they are not exactly the most exciting places to shop, why have downtown Los Altos and Menlo Park retail stores been more successful in terms of survival than the ones in Palo Alto?

Commercial rents are costly everywhere so it cannot be used as an excuse for Palo Alto retail businesses.

Palo Alto has always been against big box stores. Some of my most frequent big box stores became almost useless through lack of choice, size, colors, etc. and that inludes Ikea. Nowadays, Costco, Target and Home Depot are still busy but seem to be lacking in inventory compared to the past.

Online shopping is not only convenient, but choices abound compared to any big box store, let alone smaller mom and pop store. Smaller stores are the place to go to browse and impulse buy, but not really the place to get household items, linens, etc. and even appliances have become easier online than an appliance warehouse.

Basically shopping for various items where instant gratification is not necessary, or trying on e.g. shoes, otherwise why bother. It is a chicken and egg situation. Even various food items are often out of stock in local grocery stores so online is the way to go.

Steve, you are the professional planner and economist. There must be a better thought process to create an agenda for change. Trends will emerge slowly. We would be more informed and happier if a stronger consensus could emerge. For example, here are a just few assumptions seeking greater consensus.

On-line shopping and delivery services can only increase.

Big box retail will prevail. Costco and Home Depot, for example, serve several distinct classes of customers....larger familiies, contractors, and apparently small restaurants. Palo Alto lacking large, undeveloped sites will struggle to compete with RedWood City and Mt. View. eg, Safeway(s) and Costco(s). Draegers and Whole Foods are established, convenient but relatively expensive for many citizens.

The future of large national pharmacy chains will be unclear. Many of their products are vulneable to online shopping and direct shipment. They are exploring various gaps in health services ranging from vaccinations, primary care and urgent care. They may have expertise and capital to create and enter unseen markets. Or they may fade away as a relic of the past.

Exoerts should be able to analyze and track the overall markets being served by "downtown" Los Altos, Mt. View, Palo Alto, Menlo Park and Redwood City. What is regional vs local size of their customer base? What are trends for these successful small, nimble businesses when new housing creates new demography.

Realistically, what are 2 simple, 10-year forward-looking scenarios for new, occupied housing within ten mile radius of Palo Alto. These assumptions are woefully absent. State government wizards create more heat than light.

Finally, two big hurdles. #1 What is potential for ECR? 80% housing or less? 20% retail and services? Small lot sizes constrain Palo Alto.

#2 Will RTO and WFH reach equilbrium? I bet we do and more workers will be in moat offices. Worker productivity and profits will be the timing determinates.

Timely headline, when discussing Cal Ave anyway. Hundreds new customers in high rises without enough parking spaces will certainly add customer base for Cal Ave businesses.