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Experts are warning of unusually warm water in the Pacific Ocean, the phenomenon known as “El Niño this year. That has historically signaled wet winters in the Bay Area so officials are urging residents to start preparing for storms and potential flooding.
The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center announced Oct. 8 that there’s a very high chance this year will feature a strong-to-very strong El Niño through March 2027. The high likelihood of strong rain bears strong resemblances to 1998, when the San Francisquito Creek overflowed and flooded neighborhoods in Palo Alto, East Palo Alto and Menlo Park.
Although it’s clear El Niño will be shifting normal storm patterns, NWS meteorologist Brian Garcia said it’s impossible to predict the impacts now as there have been relatively dry winters with this weather pattern before. Past El Niño winters include 1997-98 and 2015-16. While there was historic flooding in 1998, he said there was an average amount of rainfall in 2016.
The way rain impacts a region relies on a variety of factors, including where the rain falls and over what amount of time. Garcia said there may even be compounding impacts from rising sea levels, storm surges and increased rainfall that could create a situation in which flood water cannot drain until the tide lowers. But any fine details of this year’s storms, including whether they’ll materialize, are “blurry.”
“We have this generalized look at what the pattern could be, but the details of how that pattern lays out and what type of storms we get across our area can only be resolved once we get into a window that’s much closer in time as opposed to months out,” Garcia said.
While the details are still unclear, Garcia encouraged residents to make necessary preparations for the upcoming winter storms and sign up for regional emergency alerts. That’s AlertSCC in Santa Clara County and SMC Alert in San Mateo County.
Making preparations
Long-time residents near the San Francisquito Creek have a hunch of what to expect. Crescent Park resident Tom Rindfleisch had about a foot and a half of water in his yard in 1998, and nearly had to reckon with another flood in 2022. He runs the Crescent Park Neighborhood Association’s mailing list and has been following the authority’s flood protection work since it was formed in 1999.
Rindfleisch said the lack of certainty around the storms and flooding adds to residents’ anxieties around preparations, leaving many of his neighbors worrying whether they’ve prepared enough — especially newer residents who haven’t experienced past floods.
“It’s a challenging problem for residents here, in terms of just the threat being there and nagging,” Rindfleisch said. “A lot of people lose sleep over the potential of floods in the winter rainy season, and this year it’s going to be particularly strong because of this El Niño effect.”
Local officials are making preparations as well. At the San Francisquito Creek Joint Powers Authority’s Sept. 24 meeting, authority staff described cleaning the creekbed and removing limbs from trees to prevent debris from blocking up the creek. They’re also preparing excavators to install beside the Pope-Chaucer bridge and University Avenue bridge in case of blockages.
Multiple structural improvements have been installed over the past few years in the hopes of preventing or lessening the creek’s flood risk. The authority’s “Reach 1” project was finished in 2019 and included widening the creek and building levees along the stretch of creek from Highway 101 to where it feeds into the bay. Palo Alto began renovations on the Newell Road bridge in May that are meant to increase the amount of water that could flow through it.
East Palo Alto residents have experienced similar floods on the opposite side of the creek, though council member Mark Dinan said the city is much less prepared for this winter’s storms than he would prefer. Dinan, who sits on the creek authority’s board of directors, said he’s unsure of the city’s specific emergency plans, including how residents might evacuate if necessary or what’ll happen if the city’s power goes out for long stretches of time.
“If it all comes at once, we could be in a situation that is just tremendously damaging, disruptive, costly and just terrible for the region,” Dinan said. “This will hit differently for the working-class folks who are living paycheck to paycheck and really can’t afford to lose their car and can’t afford to be flooded out of their apartment.”
Dinan said he’s working with East Palo Alto’s city staff to better prepare residents. That includes opening a second sandbag distribution site on the city’s west side.
In Palo Alto, Vice Mayor Greer Stone said preparations began early this year to educate residents on the region’s flood risks and give more time to gather resources like sandbags and drinking water. Stone, who chairs the creek authority’s board of directors, encouraged residents to check if they’re in a high risk flood zone and develop an emergency plan.
“We need to prepare now rather than waiting until a major atmospheric river is on top of us,” Stone said. “In recognition of the higher likelihood that we see a significant atmospheric event, we are taking extraordinary precautions and moving up our typical preparations this year.”
While the authority was able to complete Reach 1’s downstream improvements to the San Francisquito Creek, Stone said the authority is still struggling to secure funding to work on “Reach 2,” which would include improvements to the creek from Middlefield Road to Highway 101. This project includes improvements to the Pope-Chaucer bridge — a spot which Rindfleisch and others say is the creek’s main chokepoint.
Stone said he hopes concern around this year’s winter storms renews state and federal interest in supporting these types of local infrastructure projects. Gov. Gavin Newsom declared a state of emergency around the potential El Niño storms in late September to bolster preparedness efforts.
“Overall preparedness is what protects residents this winter, and infrastructure is what will change the risk for future winters,” Stone told this news publication.
Palo Alto residents can pick up sandbags at Mitchell Park (600 East Meadow Drive), the Palo Alto Airport Terminal (1925 Embarcadero Road) and the Rinaconda Tennis Courts (corner of Newell Road and Hopkins Avenue). The city is also hosting an open house on storm preparedness at Fire Station 3 (799 Embarcadero Road) on Oct. 29.
Menlo Park residents can pick up sandbags at the Burgess Park parking lot (corner of Burgess Drive and Alma Street) and Fire Station 77 (1467 Chilco Street).
East Palo Alto residents can pick up sandbags at the Public Works Corporation Yard (150 Tara Road).
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