Getting your Trinity Audio player ready...

Presented by

A new approach to forecasting toxic metals in wildfire smoke

Wildfires can turn natural metals in soil into toxic, airborne particles. Stanford researchers are working to predict where these metals travel and warn people in harm’s way.

After the 2019 Kincade Fire in Northern California’s Sonoma County, Stanford soil scientist and biogeochemist Scott Fendorf and colleagues investigated how wildfires can transform naturally occurring metals that are harmless when locked away in soils into toxic, airborne particles linked to cancer and other health problems if people breathe them in. 

Now, Fendorf’s lab is studying how wildfires spread those particles over vast areas in smoke plumes. There’s currently no way to monitor the metal content in smoke in real time or forecast where it will go as the plume travels, Fendorf said.

With climate change, decades of wildfire suppression, and other factors contributing to more frequent and extreme wildfires around the world, and smoke traveling hundreds or thousands of miles from its source, this information could help millions of people who now routinely experience unhealthy air from wildfire smoke.

Fendorf and collaborators are working to turn foundational science from his lab into a computer model that could someday provide a nationwide forecast of toxic metals in smoke. The project, called SmokeCast, is one of more than 110 active projects supported by the Stanford Sustainability Accelerator, which is based in the Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability.

To gather data for the model, Fendorf and his team, including Stanford postdoctoral researcher Alex Honeyman and graduate student Mark Leone, are working with firefighters. In early July 2026, Honeyman and Leone attached a box the size of a briefcase to a firetruck in Colorado that was about to be dispatched to a wildfire 300 miles away. 

The box held a prototype array of air filters and satellite-linked sensors developed by Honeyman and Stanford colleagues to collect smoke samples and measure temperature, humidity, and toxic gases like carbon monoxide around the truck.

The devices provided the firetruck’s crew with real-time data through a smartphone app, helping them decide what gear to wear on scene, conveniently monitor data like humidity and temperature, and even calculate the probability that sparks could ignite another blaze. The app also estimated the likelihood that soils within 10 miles of the fire could release toxic metals when exposed to extreme heat.

When the firetruck returned to their station 14 days later, the crew retrieved a cartridge of smoke samples from the box and sent them to Fendorf’s lab. 

Over the next few years, the SmokeCast team aims to outfit dozens to hundreds more firetrucks with filters and sensors to continue improving their forecast, first on a regional level and eventually “getting down to exposures for individual firefighters,” according to Honeyman.

Fendorf said their goal is to have a more accurate forecast within a year, and he hopes that anyone can check air toxicity on their phones within a few years.

“We’re starting with air quality and metals and smoke,” said Honeyman, “but this may be a way to rethink how we gather environmental data more broadly and come up with practical solutions where we can verify that we’ve made a difference in people’s lives.”

---

Read the full story on Stanford Report.

Do you live close to campus? Sign up now to receive a new weekly email designed specifically for our neighbors. Starting this fall, we’ll let you know about events and activities on campus and deliver Stanford news, research, and expert insights right to your inbox.

Most Popular

Woodside neighbors' dispute over horse permit inspires town to take new look at its equestrian rulesOctober 30, 2026 2:12 pm

State: Menlo Park must amend housing plan if Measure P passes12 hours ago

After 98 years in Menlo Park, Cook’s Seafood abruptly shutters both locationsOctober 29, 2026 4:28 pm